Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4138
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 4138 · LAS → PHX
departs 9:35 PM PT · arrives 10:55 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 23%
Thu 10/1 30%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±5 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.