Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4145
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
WN 4145 · SFO → PHX
departs 5:00 AM PT · arrives 6:55 AM MT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 4%
Mon 10/5 3%
Fri 10/9 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 14% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from SFO are usually not late
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.