Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4156 LANDED 9:47 AM PT, ~16 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

WN 4156 · SMF → PDX

took off 8:26 AM PT · landed 9:47 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ SMF is prone to delays

↑ SMF is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4156 · SMF → PDX

Odds over time