Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4161
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 4161 · LAS → SLC
departs 9:40 PM PT · arrives 12:10 AM MT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 26%
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4 28%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at SLC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SLC?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SLC at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
SLC (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.