Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4164
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 4164 · BWI → PIT
departs 9:20 PM ET · arrives 10:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 20%
Thu 10/1 34%
Fri 10/2 31%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PIT (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.