Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4257
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 4257 · LAS → MSY
departs 12:45 PM PT · arrives 6:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
+28 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed +28 pts in 24h
+28 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
31%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
12pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.10 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.