Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4293 LANDED 3:07 PM PT, ~16 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

WN 4293 · OAK → LAX

took off 2:13 PM PT · landed 3:07 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 2pm departures from OAK are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4293 · OAK → LAX

Odds over time