Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4310 LANDED 10:47 PM PT, ~41 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 4310 · SAN → SEA

took off 8:28 PM PT · landed 10:47 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±1 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from SAN are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4310 · SAN → SEA

Odds over time