Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 438 LANDED 5:17 PM PT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

WN 438 · GEG → SMF

took off 3:48 PM PT · landed 5:17 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ GEG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

GEG (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

SMF (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 438 · GEG → SMF

Odds over time