Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 4438 · BWI → JAX
departs 6:45 PM ET · arrives 8:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 15%
Thu 10/1 26%
Fri 10/2 33%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 9.2 mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.