WN 4440 · SAN → LAS

departs 7:28 PM PT · arrives 8:48 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4440 · SAN → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?