Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4448
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 4448 · SAN → LAS
departs 12:10 PM PT · arrives 1:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±2 pts
+25 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 56% · changed +25 pts in 24h
+25 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
32%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.