Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4467
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 4467 · LAS → OAK
departs 9:50 PM PT · arrives 11:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 22%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.