Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4506 LANDED 8:27 PM CT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

WN 4506 · SEA → AUS

took off 2:54 PM PT · landed 8:27 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

AUS (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4506 · SEA → AUS

Odds over time