Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4509 LANDED 3:45 PM PT, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 4509 · SEA → LAS

took off 1:50 PM PT · landed 3:45 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

LAS (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4509 · SEA → LAS

Odds over time