Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4512 LANDED 4:12 PM PT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 4512 · LAS → SFO

took off 3:08 PM PT · landed 4:12 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 3pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.08 in

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4512 · LAS → SFO

Odds over time