Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4514 LANDED 9:20 PM PT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

WN 4514 · SEA → OAK

took off 7:45 PM PT · landed 9:20 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4514 · SEA → OAK

Odds over time