Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4534
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 4534 · DTW → BWI
departs 5:35 AM ET · arrives 7:00 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 4%
Thu 10/1 4%
Fri 10/2 4%
Sat 10/3 4%
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5 4%
Tue 10/6 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
3%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
DTW is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 9.2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.