Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4556 LANDED 1:51 PM PT, ~15 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

WN 4556 · SMF → LAS

took off 12:47 PM PT · landed 1:51 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4556 · SMF → LAS

Odds over time