Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4595
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 4595 · ELP → LAS
departs 2:25 PM MT · arrives 3:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 20%
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
52%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
52%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
ELP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.23 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.