Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4600 IN THE AIR (OFF 8:18 PM ET, ETA 8:42 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 4600 · BWI → RIC

took off 8:18 PM ET · expected to land 8:42 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4600 · BWI → RIC

Odds over time