Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
WN 4638 · FLL → BNA
departs 8:25 AM ET · arrives 9:40 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 9%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 2.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at FLL that day
↑
This flight has been late 16% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
FLL (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 2.21 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.