Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4676
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 4676 · RNO → LAS
departs 3:15 PM PT · arrives 4:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 19%
Thu 10/1 15%
Fri 10/2 17%
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.