Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4698 IN THE AIR (OFF 8:23 PM ET, ETA 10:21 PM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 4698 · BWI → LAX

took off 8:23 PM ET · expected to land 10:21 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from BWI are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility8.5 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4698 · BWI → LAX

Odds over time