Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4728 LANDED 2:28 PM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

WN 4728 · BNA → AUS

took off 12:45 PM CT · landed 2:28 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from BNA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4728 · BNA → AUS

Odds over time