Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4738 LANDED 12:37 PM HT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 4738 · LAS → KOA

took off 10:12 AM PT · landed 12:37 PM HT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ KOA is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.08 in

KOA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4738 · LAS → KOA

Odds over time