Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4744 LANDED 5:45 PM PT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

WN 4744 · DEN → SJC

took off 4:45 PM MT · landed 5:45 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±1 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4744 · DEN → SJC

Odds over time