Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4748 IN THE AIR (OFF 5:45 PM ET, ETA 7:33 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 4748 · BWI → MCO

took off 5:45 PM ET · expected to land 7:33 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4748 · BWI → MCO

Odds over time