Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4769
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 4769 · SAN → SEA
departs 1:55 PM PT · arrives 4:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 41%
Thu 10/1 41%
Fri 10/2 50%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 36%
Tue 10/6 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
1pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.