Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4825 IN THE AIR (OFF 3:20 PM MT, ETA 4:18 PM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 4825 · DEN → SMF

took off 3:20 PM MT · expected to land 4:18 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4825 · DEN → SMF

Odds over time