Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4831
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 4831 · STL → RSW
departs 7:10 PM CT · arrives 10:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 35%
Thu 10/1 39%
Fri 10/2 29%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at RSW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RSW?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from STL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at RSW
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RSW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.