Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4833
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
WN 4833 · BNA → LAS
departs 9:15 AM CT · arrives 11:10 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.