Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4840
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 4840 · MCO → ISP
departs 7:55 PM ET · arrives 10:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 27%
Thu 10/1 42%
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ISP more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ISP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at ISP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ISP?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ISP (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.