Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4856 LANDED 10:12 AM PT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

WN 4856 · DEN → GEG

took off 9:21 AM MT · landed 10:12 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at GEG that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Arrivals into GEG at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GEG (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4856 · DEN → GEG

Odds over time