Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4861
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
WN 4861 · LGA → HOU
departs 1:25 PM ET · arrives 4:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Mon 10/5 30%
Fri 10/9 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.