Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4872 LANDED 7:45 PM CT, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

WN 4872 · RSW → MDW

took off 6:14 PM ET · landed 7:45 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.12 in

MDW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4872 · RSW → MDW

Odds over time