Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4920 IN THE AIR (OFF 8:47 PM ET, ETA 9:13 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 4920 · BWI → ORF

took off 8:47 PM ET · expected to land 9:13 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4920 · BWI → ORF

Odds over time