Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4934 LANDED 11:10 AM CT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

WN 4934 · MDW → MKE

took off 10:44 AM CT · landed 11:10 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ MDW is busy at that time

↑ 10am departures from MDW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MKE (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling10,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4934 · MDW → MKE

Odds over time