Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 495 LANDED 8:16 AM MT, ~14 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

WN 495 · BNA → DEN

took off 6:44 AM CT · landed 8:16 AM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 495 · BNA → DEN

Odds over time