Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4972
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 4972 · ELP → PHX
departs 5:15 PM MT · arrives 5:35 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 23%
Sat 10/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
−27 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −27 pts in 24h
−27 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at ELP that day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
ELP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.42 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.67 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.