Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 498 IN THE AIR (OFF 2:04 PM PT, ETA 3:11 PM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 498 · OAK → LAS

took off 2:04 PM PT · expected to land 3:11 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

73% chance · ±3 pts +28 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 498 · OAK → LAS

Odds over time