Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5073
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 5073 · DEN → STL
departs 5:20 PM MT · arrives 8:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Tue 10/6 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.