Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 646 LANDED 10:41 AM AT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

WN 646 · MCO → SJU

took off 8:14 AM ET · landed 10:41 AM AT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ MCO is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJU (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling7,840 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 646 · MCO → SJU

Odds over time