Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 687
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 687 · BNA → TPA
departs 7:45 PM CT · arrives 10:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 27%
Sat 10/3 27%
Sun 10/4 24%
Tue 10/6 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.