Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 4041 LANDED 6:46 PM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YV 4041 · IAD → LGA

took off 6:01 PM ET · landed 6:46 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility8.8 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4041 · IAD → LGA

Odds over time