YV 4063 · IAD → JAX

took off 1:14 PM ET · landed 2:55 PM ET (scheduled 12:52 PM ET → 3:11 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to JAX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 12pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Arrivals into JAX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility8.8 mi Precipnone

JAX (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4063 · IAD → JAX

Odds over time

How late did it get to JAX?