Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 4071 LANDED 7:31 PM CT, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YV 4071 · IAH → PNS

took off 6:17 PM CT · landed 7:31 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PNS

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PNS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4071 · IAH → PNS

Odds over time