Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3408 LANDED 10:05 AM ET, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 3408 · BNA → EWR

took off 7:17 AM CT · landed 10:05 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3408 · BNA → EWR

Odds over time