Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3416 LANDED 9:04 PM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 3416 · CHS → EWR

took off 7:40 PM ET · landed 9:04 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

CHS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3416 · CHS → EWR

Odds over time