Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3433 LANDED 4:33 PM ET, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

YX 3433 · DTW → EWR

took off 3:17 PM ET · landed 4:33 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3433 · DTW → EWR

Odds over time